America roundup: Dollar gains as strong US data fuels Fed hawkish bets, Wall Street ends lower, gold slides, oil settles despite production hike plan OPEC+, supply still tight – June 4, 2022
• Manufacturing payrolls in the United States in May 18,000, 40,000 forecast, 55,000 previous
• Canadian Labor Productivity (TQ) (Q1) -0.5%, -0.5% forecast, -0.5% previous
•U.S. May Unemployment Rate U6 7.1%, previous 7.0%
• US May Average Hourly Earnings (Yearly) (Yearly) 5.2%, 5.2% forecast, 5.5% previous
• Unemployment rate in the United States in May 3.6%, 3.5% forecast, 3.6% previous
• May US non-farm payrolls 390,000, forecast 325,000, previous 428,000
• US May Private Nonfarm Payrolls 333K, 325K forecast, 406K previous
• Average US Hourly Earnings in May (monthly) 0.3%, 0.4% forecast, 0.3% previous
• US May Services PMI 53.4, 53.5 forecast, 55.6 previous
• US May Markit Composite PMI 53.6, 53.8 forecast, 56.0 previous
• US May ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders 57.6, previous 54.6
• US May ISM non-manufacturing payroll 50.2 49.5 previous
• US May ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 55.9, 56.4 forecast, 57.1 previous
• US May ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity 54.5,59.1 previous
• United States United States Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 727 727 previous
• US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 574, previous 574
Future Outlook – Economic Data (GMT)
• No data forthcoming
Future Outlook – Events, Other Releases (GMT)
• No significant event
EUR/USD: The euro fell on Friday as the dollar strengthened after a better-than-expected US jobs report indicated a tight labor market that could keep the Federal Reserve on an aggressive higher path interest rates. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 390,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department said Friday in its closely watched jobs report. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a payroll increase of 325,000 jobs in May. The Fed has raised interest rates by three-quarters of a percentage point this year, and most Fed policymakers favor raising interest rates by another half-percentage point at each of their next two meetings. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0788 (38.2% fib), a break up can trigger a rise towards 1.0851 (BB upper). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0718 (5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0606 (23.6% fib A).
GBP/USD: The British pound fell against the US dollar on Friday after upbeat jobs data bolstered the case for continued Fed tightening. US employers hired more workers than expected in May and maintained a fairly strong pace of wage increases, signs of labor market strength that will keep the Federal Reserve on an aggressive monetary tightening path to calm demand. The establishment survey showed non-farm payrolls increased by 390,000 jobs last month. April data has been revised upwards to show payrolls increased by 436,000 jobs instead of 428,000 as previously estimated. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2598 (38.2% fib), a break up can trigger a rise towards 1.2696 (50% fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2478 (23.6% fib), a break below could take the pair down to 1.2340 (19th May low).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar edged lower against its U.S. counterpart on Friday, but remained near its highest level in more than six weeks as oil prices rose and strong jobs data in the United States reinforced expectations of aggressive interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. The price of oil, one of Canada’s top exports, was boosted on Friday by expectations that OPEC’s decision to raise production targets by a bit more than expected won’t affect the economy much. tight global supply and rising demand as China eases COVID restrictions. US crude prices settled up 1.7% to $118.87 a barrel. The loonie was trading down 0.1% at 1.2585 against the greenback, after hitting its highest level since April 21 at 1.2552. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2627 (5DMA), a break up can trigger a rise towards 1.2650 (38.2%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2549 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2495 (BB lower).
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against the Japanese yen on Friday as strong US jobs data bolstered the case for the Federal Reserve to remain aggressive on monetary policy. The data showed U.S. employers hired more workers than expected in May and maintained a fairly strong pace of wage increases, signs of labor market strength. The closely watched Labor Department report showed non-farm payrolls rose by 390,000 jobs last month and wages rose solidly, while the unemployment rate held steady at 3.6% – all signs of a tight labor market. Economists surveyed had forecast non-farm payrolls to increase by 325,000 jobs. A strong resistance can be seen at 131.02 (23.6% fib), a break up can trigger a rise towards 131.69 (23.6% fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 129.51 (38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair down to 128.36(9DMA).
Summary of actions
European stocks fell on Friday, erasing earlier gains, after U.S. jobs data bolstered the case for aggressive Federal Reserve policy tightening and investors upped their bets on ECB rate hikes after high inflation this week.
Britain’s benchmark FTSE 100 closed down 0.17%, Germany’s Dax ended down 0.98%, France’s CAC ended the day down 0.23%.
US stock indices fell on Friday, led by shares of Apple and Tesla, while a strong jobs report supported the view that the Federal Reserve would continue on its aggressive course of policy tightening to calm the economy. high inflation for decades.
The Dow Jones closed 1.05%, the S&P 500 closed 1.63%, the Nasdaq stabilized 2.47%.
Summary of raw materials
Gold prices fell on Friday, under pressure from a stronger dollar and as better-than-expected U.S. jobs data raised fears of aggressive monetary policy tightening.
Spot gold fell 1% to $1,848.67 an ounce at 1759 GMT, having earlier fallen to $1,846.4. US gold futures fell 1.1% to $1,850.2.
Oil stabilized on Friday, buoyed by expectations that OPEC’s decision to raise production targets by a bit more than expected won’t add much to global supply which is expected to tighten. as China eases COVID restrictions.
Brent crude rose $2.11, or 1.8%, to settle at $119.72 a barrel at 1338 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $2, or 1.7%, to $118.87.