Moody’s predicts global shipping revenue decline in 2022, but still robust
Moody’s Investors Service lowered its outlook for the global shipping industry from stable to positive on Monday, but said activity would still remain stronger than it was before the supply disruptions caused by the lockdown of COVID-19. “The revenues of container and dry bulk carriers are at record levels as strong demand for goods has overwhelmed supply chains,” Moody’s analyst Daniel Harlid said in a research note. Profits will fall from their 2021 high, but will remain high, he said. Demand for goods will remain strong in 2022, but growth rates are likely to decline. However, tanker charter rates remain at “very low levels” despite an expected recovery in oil demand. “We expect profits to have bottomed out and the next 12 months will show at least steady development for tanker carriers,” Harlid said. Capital spending in the broad maritime transport sector will continue to increase due to the demand for newer, more energy efficient vessels for the phased application of stricter environmental standards from 2023. Meanwhile, strong demand for iron ore, coal and grain will drive up charter rates. Overall, average bulk carrier charter rates have increased by about 143% over the past 12 months, Moody’s said.